2025 bonus expectations, bank-by-bank
The 2,000 people who voted in our Bonus Expectations survey were rather optimistic people - on average, they thought their bonuses for 2025 would go up by around 50% on last year. But that nice round number hides some very, very abrasive opinions.
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We asked respondents to our survey what bank they worked for, as well as how they expected their bonus to change. The chart at the bottom of the page shows how professionals from different banks expected their bonus to change, as well as the changes they expected last year and the year before.
The most optimistic bankers in our survey were based in the Middle East and Asia. Respondents working for ADIB, in Abu Dhabi, as well as DBS and UOB – both based in Singapore – expected their bonuses to rise by a wild 86% and 76% year-on-year, respectively.
They may not be realistic. One analyst responding to our survey working for ADIB said that he expected his bonus to increase by 200% (from a low base, admittedly) despite receiving no communication about it.
The least optimistic bankers were at European banks: Barclays, followed by banks such as Deutsche Bank and UBS. Like most banks, European banks are cutting costs. Barclays announced plans to cut £700m in costs between 2024 and 2026. Deutsche Bank plans to cut €300m in 2025, and UBS is about $10bn through the $13bn in cuts it wanted to make after acquiring Credit Suisse.
In the European Union, these banks are hamstrung by the EU’s bonus cap, which restricts bonuses to 200% of salary for high earners. In London, however, the bonus cap has now been lifted, allowing for bonuses to rise beyond this. 2025 is expected to the first year in which the effects of this regulatory change are felt, and yet this is not reflected in expectations. One London-based UBS director said that she expected her bonus to be flat, despite the bank making “record earnings” in her area.
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