A niche academic team at quant hedge fund AQR is researching prediction markets
Hiring experienced prediction markets traders can be expensive; people with a profitable track record on Polymarket or Kalshi can command a total compensation package of up to $2m. AQR Capital Management, the hedge fund of Cliff Asness, was seen hiring an experienced prediction markets quant on a salary of up to $260k earlier this year. Now it's hiring interns in the space as well, but the team they're joining has been around for a while.
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AQR has put out a listing for a '2027 quantitative prediction markets summer analyst' based in its Greenwich, Connecticut headquarters. AQR said in the listing that it's interested in event contracts for finance, crypto, sports, politics, and culture. The intern will be tasked with "seek[ing] out reliable prediction markets trading strategies"
Asness said last November that the fund was "considering and looking at" prediction markets but hadn't yet entered the space. It's not clear what stage the fund's prediction markets efforts are at right now; the listing states that the role may involve "building new (or improving on existing) trading strategies," implying that it could be active in the space by then.
Sports markets are where the bulk of the money is on Polymarket and Kalshi. AQR is no stranger here, and has been advertising quantitative sports research internships since its 2025 summer cohort. The sports research team was initially focused on academic research; one prior paper was used to create out-of-sample tests for theories of asset pricing anomalies. Its remit has now expanded to cover prediction markets, meaning that the summer analyst will also support AQR's other sports analytics research efforts.
Among AQR's senior prediction markets staff is Christian Berry, who joined as a VP in July. He previously spent three years as an investment engineer at hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, but left last summer to found NextProd, a startup which allows consumers to invest across a range of actively managed systematic Kalshi strategies.
At the start of the year, institutional participants were a small fraction of total activity in prediction markets. Kalshi said in March that just 5% of bid matches were from institutional market makers, but things are changing. Earlier today, Cantor Fitzgerald launched prediction markets block trades for clients including hedge funds, while brokerages like Marex and Clear Street have been offering their own services in the space. Kalshi told Reuters in May that institutional volumes had increased 800% over the previous six months.
AQR declined to comment.
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