It's been a weak year for macro traders but not for macro trading jobs

If you're wondering what kind of time macro traders have been having in 2024, you might want to spend a few moments looking at the chart below from Goldman Sachs' recent 10Q filing. It shows both realized and unrealized losses on macro (rates and FX) trades at Goldman Sachs in 2024 and suggests that when the two things are taken into consideration, the first six months of 2024 as a whole have been challenging compared to last year. 

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Goldman Sachs: Realized and unrealized gains/losses:

Source: Goldman Sachs 10Q

In the first six months of 2023, Goldman's realized and unrealized gains on macro trades were $1.6bn. In the first six months of 2024, they were down to $342m. The three months to June 2024 were fine for Goldman's macro traders, but these Q2 gains were obliterated by a $1bn loss, realized or not, in Q1.

Goldman cautions not to read too much into its unrealized gains and losses, noting that they're typically offset by other products and hedged by derivatives. However, it isn't the only bank to have found the macro business difficult in the first half.  Deutsche Bank, for example, said that revenues fell in both its FX and rates businesses in the second quarter.

While macro trading revenues have faltered this year, banks are still lining up new macro traders.

In one of the most significant moves of recent moments, Andrew Luboski, formerly a director in macro trading at Citi, has just joined HSBC in New York as the global head of G10FX and short term rates trading. Luboski spent nearly 14 years at Citi, but was stuck at director there.

In Asia, Citi has just hired Anit Khandelwal from Bank of America in Singapore to work on AUD rates trading in Sydney. 

And in Europe, Raghav Joshi has just gone BNP Paribas in London to become the global head of G10 FX trading at Santander in Madrid. Lower down the seniority scale, Felix Hoffman has gone from Morgan Stanley to Goldman in Paris. 

At the same time, macro traders continue to leave for hedge funds, although at a slower rate than in previous years. Bobby Jain, for example, poached Ali Rauf from Squarepoint in July; Giorgio Paulin went from Citi to Elan Capital Management during the same month.

Accordingly, macro trading headhunters tell us they're still busy and that "everyone" is hiring as we go into the final quarter. This is partly because of the drain of talent to hedge funds. It's also because of the continuous poaching of existing staff. "Everyone hires someone and then they need replacing," observes one. On this basis alone, the fourth quarter should - hopefully - remain active for hiring. 

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